Eleksyon 2007: When Worlds Collide
Sunday, May 27th, 2007For or against the Administration?
As far as I can remember, this is the first post-Marcos midterm elections in our country that acquired the flavor of a referendum. Do you agree or disagree with how Gloria is running the country? Nothing makes this clearer than the slogans of Team Unity and Genuine Administration. "Isang boto laban sa nakaupo" is an attempt to capitalize on Gloria’s reputation as the most unpopular Pinoy president since dead old Ferdie. "Mas para sa kids mo" meanwhile echoes the worn old argument of pro-GMAers: who cares about corruption and morality as long as the economy is doing great?
Now that the dust is starting to settle (not withstanding the special elections in Lanao del Sur that was STILL marred by violence and irregularities), some political analysts, and paid hacks posing as analysts, are starting to dissect the results of the elections. As Che-Che Larazo said "Paano bumoto si Juan?".
"Protest vote" is fast becoming a popular term. Ex-mutineer Antonio Trillanes has landed in the "Magic 12", despite the fact that he was not allowed to go out and campaign for himself personally. As one news reporter noted (I can’t remember who, but I’m sure he/she was from ANC), imagine if he had a chance to do so.
Meanwhile, latest results show that Alan Peter Cayetano may yet buck every obstacle that has been hurled at his campaign. If he somehow manages to hold on to his Magic 12 spot, one of the harshest critics of the Arroyo regime will be living proof that a nuisance candidate and COMELEC sabotage can be defeated by the people’s will.
On the other hand, Mike Defensor, Chavit Singson and Prospero Pichay, despite being some of the top spenders this elections, find themselves out in the cold. As some pundits pointed out, being so closely associated with Gloria (Defensor is Gloria’s chief of staff, Pichay is part of a clique along with JDV that rules Congress) is a "kiss of death". Adel Tamano of the GO would never get tired of pointing out that cheating wouldn’t be enough to push the most unpopular candidates to victory.
But what about Team Unity’s domination in terms of local positions (i.e governor, congressman etc.)?
Some point out that "miracle victories" such as those of Fred Lim (Mayor of Manila), Grace Padaca (Governor of Isabella), Among Ed Panlilio (Governor of Pampanga, GMA’s province!), the sister of Nereus Acosta (Representative of Bukidnon, i think), Darlene Custodio (Representative of Cotabato) and Jesse Robredo (Mayor of Naga City), are also indicative of a protest vote. Since the GO was unable to field enough candidates to contest even 3/4s of all local positions in the last elections, statistically, a Team Unity majority was imminent. However, the above-mentioned people won over personalities closely associated with GMA: Garci, Manny Pacquiao, Lilia Pineda, the son of Luis Villafuerte, and Ali Atienza.
And if there is indeed a protest vote, why then have partylist groups, that are virtually the epitome of "anti-Gloria" , have less-than-spectacular performances? Bayan Muna, barring any major gains in the final days of counting, may lose its title as "#1". While Gabriela has catapulted from 1 to 2 seats (if the old formula will still be followed), Anakpawis dropped from 2 to 1 seats. KABATAAN and Suara Bangsamora meantime are on the brink of elimination. Even partylists that I normally wouldn’t want to be in the same planet with have fared badly: Akbayan has dropped from 3 to 1 seat. Sanlakas and PM will definitely join Suara and KABATAAN in the elimination chamber.
So what’s the real score? A thumbs-up for anti-Gloria forces, or a vindication of Gloria’s rule?
The answer is somewhere in between. If it was all about the people’s will, the result of the elections was definitely a "sampal kay GMA". The only TU candidates who might make it (Joker, Angara and Zubiri) are not that closely associated with Gloria. Heck, with the victories of the likes of Panlilio, and the defeat of Mr. E-VAT, Ralph Recto, one might say this is the first time the people flexed their voting power.
But we do not live in the ideal democracy one gets to read about in Sociology and Political Science classes. In a backward country like ours, a major factor that might even be bigger than the people themselves, must be considered. The factor? The much-touted "political machinery". Or if translated in layman’s terms, "pandaraya".
The most blatant cheating would be that against progressive partylists. As early as 2003, members of Bayan Muna, Anakpawis, Gabriela and even KABATAAN were being murdered, abducted or harrassed by the AFP. 4 years and 800 plus dead partylist members later, the AFP has fine-tuned its attempts to crush the above-mentioned groups. Not only have they fielded partylist groups that are simply a bunch of "tambays" put together, to increase the 2% limit, they have now actively forced whole barangays into voting for their favored partylist groups.
Outside of the partylist world, Cayetano may be the one who has received the worst of Gloria’s cheating. Even after "Pepito" was disqualified, COMELEC Commisioner Abalos himself spread the word that "Cayetano" votes should be regarded as stray votes.
And of course, there is the 12-0 win for TU in Mindanao that was achieved only because no real elections actually took place.
The defeat of Administration candidates has shown that the political awareness of the Filipino people has increased. They have become susceptible to "myths" of "economic progress" that never translate into the dining table. They have become immune to appeals for "peace" through voting for retention of the status quo.
In turn, the Administration has shown that it has a heightened alert against what it has feared the most: a politically-conscious Filipino people. And it has shown an heightened urgency in its reaction: 2004 needed someone to spill the beans on Garci and Gloria. This year, "Hello Garci" came more than a year earlier, and not a moment too late.
The two most decisive factors of our society are heading for a headlong collision. The only question is, when, and how?